Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has something to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
